For the pathway modelled in this study, in which the technology improvement rate of HSPV during the past five years was considered, the total installed capacity would increase from 253 GW in 2020 to 1998 GW and 4548 GW in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Fig. 3. Future development trend of solar PV in China.
China has already made major commitments to transitioning its energy systems towards renewables, especially power generation from solar, wind and hydro sources. However, there are many unknowns about the future of solar energy in China, including its cost, technical feasibility and grid compatibility in the coming decades.
Modelling results have led to the following main conclusions. It is predicted that the installed capacity of HSPV in China would increase at the rate of 13.7 GW/yr during the next decade driven by the long-term climate ambition, making up about 50% of the entire rooftop solar power market by 2050.
The great demand of global markets is believed to be one of the most important factors. Zhang et al. showed that the Chinese solar PV industry has been influenced greatly by overseas markets, for example in European countries such as Germany. Another important factor is the active role of the Chinese government, with its various policy tools.
Zhao et al. showed that China's PV power technology has improved dramatically, with technological advances in the efficiency, reliability, and reduced pollution of PV cells and PV power generation systems, leading to a rapid increase in both PV production capacity and the value of exports .
Solar PV of China accounted for about one third (174GW) of the global total installed capacity in 2018 and contributed to 3.5% of national total power generation in 2020 .
Status, trend, economic and environmental impacts of household solar ...
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The ambitious targets of peaking CO 2 emissions before 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality before 2060 (Goal 3060) have emerged as the driving force in the …
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