Illustration of the law of battery cost reduction

How is battery cost disaggregated?

The cost of battery is disaggregated by building a bottom-up model of battery cost by using the BatPaC (Battery Packaging and Cost estimation) tool, a publicly available, peer-reviewed, and customizable Microsoft Excel-based computer program developed by the Argonne National Laboratory (U.S.).

Will battery production costs decrease as power law increases?

According to the learning curve concept, as cumulative installed capacity increases, battery production costs per kWh are expected to decline as a power law owing to improved designs/manufacturing techniques and economies of scale. However, battery prices depend on both materials and manufacturing costs.

How is battery cost disaggregation based on a Batpac model?

Disaggregation of battery cost using BatPac (an excel-based model to estimate the performance and cost of an electric vehicle battery). The goal is to identify areas of intervention by analysing the cost component of a battery.

Why do battery price projection curves show a downward trend?

The battery price projection curves demonstrate a gradually decelerating downward trend, especially for battery cells (represented by the gray lines). This trend is mainly attributed to the expected increase in mineral costs, which offset the cost reductions achieved through the learning effects of the cell manufacturing process.

Is chemistry a learning driver for battery cell cost reduction?

This finding can be attributed to the fact that the learning driver for battery cell cost reduction encompasses all chemistry types of LIB production volumes, and the learning effect has been relatively well-established due to its similarities with long-standing cell manufacturing for portable electronic devices.

What is a bootstrap model for achieving battery price reductions?

The bootstrap method is employed to quantify the uncertainty associated with the learning rate regression; the two-stage model structure is designed to consider the practical constraints imposed by material costs in achieving battery price reductions.