This trend is starting, with POSCO (South Korea) looking to become a significant battery and anode producer, and with graphite miners looking to vertically integrated production and go further downstream.
The graphite (AAM) is used in the anode of the battery and makes up ~95% of the anode weight, with the remainder being silicon or other materials. An average EV has ~50kg of graphite within the anode.
Long-term pricing of US$900/t (real) for natural graphite (fines). We note that graphite is split into numerous categories based on size, namely jumbo flake (+32 Mesh), large flake (+50 mesh and +80 Mesh), and fine flake (+100 Mesh and Sub100 Mesh).
This trend continued during the first half of 2024 as graphite supply from China ballooned, adding headwinds to global prices for the battery metal and threatening capacity outside of the Asian nation.
We expect graphite demand to achieve 27% CAGR to 2030E, driving prices 25-50% higher than current levels. Ex-China supply chain is a key theme. Graphite is currently used in all lithium-ion battery chemistry; however, we highlight risks of substitution and new technology on longer term demand.
Graphite prices have retreated and remained depressed with the rise of Chinese production of the battery metal, making it challenging for miners outside of China to keep their projects economically viable. "It's been especially difficult for projects in North America, where we actually have only one operating mine,” said Georgiev.
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