By solving for the investment threshold and investment opportunity value under various uncertainties and different strategies, the optimal investment scheme can be obtained. Finally, to verify the validity of the model, it is applied to investment decisions for energy storage participation in China's peaking auxiliary service market.
First, the investment threshold for the first energy storage technology under the single strategy is 0.0757 USD/kWh, which is higher than the technology investment threshold of 0.0656 USD/kWh for the first energy storage under the continuous strategy.
Specifically, with an expected growth rate of 0, when the volatility rises from 0.1 to 0.2, the critical value of the investment in energy storage technology rises from 0.0757 USD/kWh to 0.1019 USD/kWh, which is more pronounced. In addition, the value of the investment option also rises from 72.8 USD to 147.7 USD, which is also more apparent.
A firm choosing to invest in energy storage technology is equivalent to executing the value of the investment option . In this study, the investment opportunity value of an energy storage technology is denoted by F (P), that is, the maximum expected net present value when a firm invests in an energy storage technology.
Therefore, this study uses the unit annual peaking capacity of the energy storage system for the solution, that is, the investment benefit coefficient of the first energy storage technology is 140 (14,000 MWh/100 MWh).
The expected value of the first energy storage technology, including the embedded option, is Φ 1 (P). In State (1,2), the second energy storage technology arrives with a Poisson process, and the firm invests in the second technology at the optimal time. The investment opportunity value of the second energy storage technology is F1,2 (P).
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