Recent studies show confidence in a more stable battery market growth and, across time-specific studies, authors expect continuously declining battery cost regardless of raw material price developments.
Within this transformation, battery costs are considered a main hurdle for the market-breakthrough of battery-powered products. Encouraged by this, various studies have been published attempting to predict these, providing the reader with a large variance of forecasted cost that results from differences in methods and assumptions.
However, a high-volume market for all components of battery cells except cathode active material is assumed , meaning that the unit price of all components in a battery cell except cathode active material are independent of factory size. The latter approach is adopted in this work.
Similar to the observation in technological learning studies, this reflects a previous underestimation of the speed of battery cost reductions 1,80 that is underlined by a decline in the initial values from the literature-based studies with advancing year of publication.
We make a similar observation by comparing the results from the two most unequally distributed groups in this analysis. 5 of the 7 experts interviewed by Baker et al. in 2010 are from academia and the average estimate of battery cost among experts is 265 $ (kW h) −1 for 2020, an optimistic estimate at the time.
The first term encompasses high, medium, and low metal prices; the second term includes production volumes of 5, 7.5, and 10 TWh. The third term encompasses the battery market segments of LFP and NCX. See supplementary material to find the values of this figure.
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