This considerable gap between demand for cell components and local supply signals growth opportunities in the battery component market. The global revenue pool of the core cell components is expected to continue growing by around 17 percent a year through 2030 (Exhibit 2).
The global revenue pool of the core cell components is expected to continue growing by around 17 percent a year through 2030 (Exhibit 2). Future technological developments (new anode materials and solid-state electrolytes) will only increase the importance of battery components.
Suppliers in the battery component sector thus face challenges regarding commercial market entry, the necessity for substantial funding, and a rapidly evolving technological landscape. Moreover, local suppliers face a highly competitive market dominated by incumbent suppliers, mostly in Asia.
In 2023, battery raw materials dominated headlines with stories of softening prices, the question of fragmentizing supply chains in light of the China-U.S. rivalry and the continuous build-up of capacity to support the electrification of the global passenger car fleet.
At the same time, the European Commission has established a dedicated instrument under the Innovation Fund to support the battery value chain, allocating up to €3 billion. 6 This funding is targeted at enhancing the middle of the battery value chain, particularly cell production, and could stimulate investments in other parts of the value chain.
According to our projections, the global battery share for L (M)FP could rise from 11 percent in 2020 to 44 percent in 2025; by 2026, we estimate that eight of the top automotive groups will have at least one L (M)FP-equipped vehicle in the volume and premium segments, up from only a couple of groups in 2023.
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